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FC Lorient 4–1 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win62%1.55
Draw25%3.88
Nancy win13%7.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
45'🟨Sega Coulibaly · Nancy
45'⚽ (pen)Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
48'⚽Pape Sane · Nancy
71'⚽Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Lorient
76'🟨Abou Ba · Nancy
84'⚽Gaëtan Courtet · FC Lorient
89'🟨Vincent Marchetti · Nancy
90'🟨Jimmy Cabot · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots14
7On target2
5Corners2
5Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.34
box share (last 5)0.480.41
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days493.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir
4.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.663.37
elo1523.961346.46
elo momentum (last 5)-3.14-6.17
eye test v1-0.49-0.71
eye trend v10.140.50
first sub minute (last 10)65.4052.60
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.400.97
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.650.68
league points18.004.00
league rank5.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6065.20
possession avg (last 5)51.8045.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.42—
season ppg2.000.44
skill v10.21-1.48
sot against avg (last 5)1.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.702.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.40
state index0.10-0.82
sterile dominance v10.53-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.190.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60