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Red Star 2–3 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexandre Perreau Niel, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win38%2.53
Draw32%3.06
Red Star win30%3.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Gregoire Lefebvre · Red Star
29'🟨Harouna Sy · Red Star
33'⚽Julio Donisa · Red Star
44'🟨Jessy Benet · Grenoble
59'⚽Malek Chergui · Grenoble
68'⚽Jessy Benet · Grenoble
80'⚽Grégory Berthier · Red Star
86'⚽ (pen)Youssouf M'Changama · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots14
5On target7
3Corners5
16Fouls12
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
box share (last 5)0.570.56
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Jean-Bouin
coach days484.00119.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.701.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.17
dominance (last 5)0.390.57
elo1335.541384.81
elo momentum (last 5)-25.75-4.48
eye test v1-1.270.06
eye trend v1-0.300.35
first sub minute (last 10)57.5057.62
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.640.69
league points4.0011.00
league rank21.0013.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8072.20
possession avg (last 5)48.8047.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.29
season ppg0.441.22
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.804.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.0012.80
skill v1-0.38-0.62
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.38
sot for avg (last 3)1.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.004.40
squad age26.0427.59
state index-1.23-0.55
sterile dominance v10.32-1.01
threat rate (last 10)0.220.34
threat rate (last 3)0.130.37
threat rate (last 5)0.170.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20