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Ajaccio 3–1 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win50%1.93
Draw28%3.51
Valenciennes win22%4.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Loïc Nestor · Valenciennes
25'🟨Yann Boé-Kane · Ajaccio
27'🟨Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio
34'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio
39'🟨Johan Cavalli · Ajaccio
55'⚽Jeremy Choplin · Ajaccio
65'🟨Elhadj Dabo · Valenciennes
70'🟨Florian Raspentino · Valenciennes
73'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots12
6On target4
5Corners5
15Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.41
box share (last 5)0.440.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days484.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
1001.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.203.89
elo1407.351405.90
elo momentum (last 5)-21.10-27.25
eye test v1-1.37-0.17
eye trend v10.000.17
first sub minute (last 10)64.4065.40
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.49
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.65—
league points18.0011.00
league rank4.0011.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2077.60
possession avg (last 5)48.0049.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.310.27
season ppg1.061.38
skill v1-0.810.08
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.504.20
sot for avg (last 3)1.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.004.00
state index-0.94-0.68
sterile dominance v10.480.33
threat rate (last 10)0.140.21
threat rate (last 3)0.090.21
threat rate (last 5)0.130.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40