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Ajaccio 3–1 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win50%1.93
Draw28%3.51
Valenciennes win22%4.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Loïc Nestor · Valenciennes
25'🟨Yann Boé-Kane · Ajaccio
27'🟨Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio
34'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio
39'🟨Johan Cavalli · Ajaccio
55'⚽Jeremy Choplin · Ajaccio
65'🟨Elhadj Dabo · Valenciennes
70'🟨Florian Raspentino · Valenciennes
73'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots12
6On target4
5Corners5
15Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.420.51
cards avg (last 5)0.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
coach days484.001001.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.22
corner diff avg (last 5)0.204.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.007.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.204.61
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.24
dominance (last 5)0.390.44
elo1424.621426.49
elo momentum (last 5)-14.34-25.41
eye test v1-0.99-0.17
eye trend v10.020.17
first sub minute (last 10)64.4065.40
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.70—
league points17.0012.00
league rank6.0011.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0077.60
possession avg (last 5)51.2049.80
rest days6.837.00
scorer concentration0.310.27
season ppg1.001.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.80-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)5.008.20
skill v1-0.610.08
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.504.20
sot for avg (last 3)1.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.00
squad age28.2625.58
state index-0.67-0.55
sterile dominance v10.440.33
threat rate (last 10)0.160.21
threat rate (last 3)0.120.21
threat rate (last 5)0.150.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80