⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Chateauroux 2–0 Beziers

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Benjamin Lepaysant, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chateauroux win42%2.31
Draw31%3.16
Beziers win28%3.49

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Aldo Angoula · Chateauroux
26'🟨Mehdi Mostefa · Beziers
38'🟨Robin Taillan · Beziers
41'⚽Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
46'🟨Alexandre Ramalingon · Beziers
53'🟨Hassan Lingani · Beziers
56'🟨Mehdi Merghem · Chateauroux
63'🟨Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
64'⚽Oumare Tounkara · Chateauroux
80'πŸŸ₯Redah Atassi Β· Beziers

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots4
4On target2
4Corners3
23Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricChateaurouxBeziers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.30
box share (last 5)0.560.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1816.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gaston-Petit
718.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.89β€”
elo1469.341475.83
elo momentum (last 5)-16.91-37.24
eye test v1-0.78-0.99
eye trend v1-0.040.18
first sub minute (last 10)58.6062.67
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.63β€”
keeper form v10.790.77
league points7.006.00
league rank13.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0078.80
possession avg (last 5)51.0049.40
rest days7.003.97
season ppg1.001.00
skill v1-0.000.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.102.33
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.40
state index-0.38-0.73
sterile dominance v10.170.72
threat rate (last 10)0.260.15
threat rate (last 3)0.220.14
threat rate (last 5)0.220.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.00β€”