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Racing Club de Lens 2–0 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2018 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win49%1.99
Draw30%3.23
Sochaux win21%4.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Yannick Gomis · Racing Club de Lens
43'🟨Cheick Doucouré · Racing Club de Lens
48'🟨Olivier Verdon · Sochaux
57'🟨Thomas Robinet · Sochaux
63'⚽Walid Mesloub · Racing Club de Lens
78'🟨Massadio Haïdara · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots2
6On target0
5Corners1
13Fouls17
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.680.62
cards avg (last 5)0.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
3.40
coach days137.00471.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.13
corner diff avg (last 5)4.20-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)8.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.332.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.09
dominance (last 5)0.520.51
elo1535.051448.79
elo momentum (last 5)30.6726.06
eye test v1-0.740.02
eye trend v1-0.120.19
first sub minute (last 10)53.4058.10
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.720.71
league points15.009.00
league rank6.0012.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2072.40
possession avg (last 5)47.4050.60
rest days14.0015.00
scorer concentration0.430.33
season ppg2.501.50
shot diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.009.60
skill v1-0.43-0.40
sot against avg (last 5)1.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.60
squad age26.4322.22
state index0.790.07
sterile dominance v10.08-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.190.23
threat rate (last 3)0.180.19
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60