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Red Star 0–3 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastein Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win42%2.30
Draw31%3.10
Red Star win27%3.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'⚽Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
44'⚽Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Lorient
57'🟨Grégory Berthier · Red Star
75'🟨Mourad Satli · Red Star
90'🟨Idriss Mhirsi · Red Star
90'⚽Yoane Wissa · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
4Shots11
1On target5
5Corners3
14Fouls10
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.480.52
cards avg (last 5)1.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Jean-Bouin
coach days470.00472.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.22
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.982.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.14
dominance (last 5)0.510.55
elo1357.661557.79
elo momentum (last 5)-5.0639.21
eye test v1-1.070.08
eye trend v1-0.11-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)62.2061.60
form points (last 5)4.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.50
keeper form v10.69—
league points4.0017.00
league rank19.002.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6077.40
possession avg (last 5)48.8052.40
rest days13.8311.00
scorer concentration—0.44
season ppg0.572.43
shot diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.808.00
skill v1-0.500.24
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.60
squad age26.3525.91
state index-0.580.74
sterile dominance v10.060.15
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00