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Grenoble 4–2 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: William Lavis, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win49%1.99
Draw31%3.09
Valenciennes win20%4.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Steve Ambri · Valenciennes
22'⚽Malek Chergui · Grenoble
43'⚽Gaëtan Robail · Valenciennes
44'🟨Francis Dady · Grenoble
45'⚽Florian Sotoca · Grenoble
47'🟨Johann Ramare · Valenciennes
60'⚽Nicolas Michel Taravel · Grenoble
73'⚽Joeffrey Cuffaut · Valenciennes
86'⚽Florian Sotoca · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
26Shots7
12On target4
6Corners3
10Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.33
box share (last 5)0.560.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days105.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
987.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.713.68
elo1415.851405.25
elo momentum (last 5)-4.51-16.55
eye test v1-0.15-0.69
eye trend v1-0.22-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)61.8365.40
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.27
keeper form v10.790.60
league points8.008.00
league rank11.0012.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0076.80
possession avg (last 5)49.0045.60
rest days10.9714.00
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg1.331.33
skill v1-0.45-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
state index-0.31-0.68
sterile dominance v1-0.730.08
threat rate (last 10)0.320.21
threat rate (last 3)0.270.20
threat rate (last 5)0.310.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.00