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FC Lorient 1–0 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Mon, Sep 3, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Faouzi Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win49%1.96
Draw29%3.29
Grenoble win21%4.56

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Fabien Lemoine · FC Lorient
22'🟨Malek Chergui · Grenoble
27'🟨Felipe Saad · FC Lorient
34'🟨Harouna Abou Demba · Grenoble
34'⚽Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Lorient
39'🟨Illan Meslier · FC Lorient
65'🟨Eric Vandenabeele · Grenoble
87'🟨Nicolas Belvito · Grenoble

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots10
3On target4
4Corners8
15Fouls26
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.23
box share (last 5)0.520.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days461.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de la Rabine
94.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.341.49
elo1526.101421.44
elo momentum (last 5)35.319.75
eye test v10.09-0.28
eye trend v10.25-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)60.8062.40
form points (last 5)11.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)2.011.20
keeper form v10.720.81
league points11.008.00
league rank6.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)52.2046.60
rest days10.0310.03
scorer concentration0.50β€”
season ppg2.201.60
skill v10.29-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
state index0.55-0.44
sterile dominance v10.22-1.02
threat rate (last 10)0.220.33
threat rate (last 3)0.250.32
threat rate (last 5)0.240.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40