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Sochaux 1–0 Beziers

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Aug 31, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: William Lavis, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win45%2.16
Draw31%3.11
Beziers win24%4.01

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'πŸŸ¨β€” Β· Sochaux
27'⚽Sofiane Daham · Sochaux
28'🟨Faycal Rherras · Beziers
33'🟨Amir Nouri · Beziers
66'🟨Redah Atassi · Beziers
70'🟨Ousmane Sidibe · Beziers
72'🟨Einar Galilea · Sochaux
75'🟨Ermedin Demirovic · Sochaux

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
5Shots8
5On target3
1Corners7
22Fouls21
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxBeziers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.27β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05β€”
box share (last 5)0.620.71
cards avg (last 5)3.200.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
coach days456.00697.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05β€”
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.09β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.802.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.202.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.36β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.11β€”
dominance (last 5)0.51β€”
elo1438.251517.02
elo momentum (last 5)5.5917.02
eye test v1-0.36-1.18
eye trend v10.22β€”
first sub minute (last 10)58.0062.00
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.05β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.50β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25β€”
keeper form v10.730.86
league points6.009.00
league rank12.008.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0078.50
possession avg (last 5)53.4049.25
rest days7.0014.00
scorer concentration0.20β€”
season ppg1.201.80
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60β€”
shots for avg (last 5)9.80β€”
skill v1-0.150.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.75
sot for avg (last 10)3.60β€”
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.00
squad age22.0127.85
state index-0.260.17
sterile dominance v10.120.85
threat rate (last 10)0.25β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.250.15
threat rate (last 5)0.230.13
venue ppg (last 5)0.80β€”