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Le Havre AC 3–1 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Aug 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win59%1.63
Draw26%3.78
Orleans win15%6.44

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Denys Bain · Le Havre AC
28'⚽Alimami Gory · Le Havre AC
34'🟨Karim Ziani · Orleans
41'🟨Denys Bain · Le Havre AC
64'⚽Armand Laurienté · Orleans
72'🟨Ousmane Cissokho · Orleans
77'🟨Victor Lekhal · Le Havre AC
79'⚽Jamal Thiaré · Le Havre AC
81'🟨Yacouba Coulibaly · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots14
4On target4
3Corners6
15Fouls20
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.28
box share (last 5)0.460.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days699.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
2252.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.912.72
elo1542.951386.46
elo momentum (last 5)-11.20-21.14
eye test v1-0.12-0.92
eye trend v1-0.430.14
first sub minute (last 10)65.2062.20
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.78
keeper form v10.830.56
league points6.004.00
league rank13.0016.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8074.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0050.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.33
season ppg1.200.80
skill v1-0.26-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.60
state index0.03-0.94
sterile dominance v1-0.230.33
threat rate (last 10)0.300.20
threat rate (last 3)0.220.18
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20