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Sochaux 2–0 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Yohann Rouinsard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win38%2.57
Stade Brestois 29 win32%3.04
Draw31%3.17

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Josema · Sochaux
46'⚽Ermedin Demirovic · Sochaux
62'🟨Rafael Paez · Sochaux
68'🟨Jessy Pi · Stade Brestois 29
73'🟨Elisha Owusu · Sochaux
73'🟨Ermedin Demirovic · Sochaux
77'🟨Thomas Ayasse · Stade Brestois 29

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots8
5On target2
5Corners5
21Fouls22
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.15
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.27
box share (last 5)0.560.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days442.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
777.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.51
elo1418.221531.87
elo momentum (last 5)-32.93-17.16
eye test v1-0.09-0.75
eye trend v1-0.03-0.91
first sub minute (last 10)62.5048.00
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.26
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.700.71
league points3.004.00
league rank13.0011.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet8.005.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0079.20
possession avg (last 5)55.2052.80
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.001.33
skill v10.290.46
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.80
state index-0.80-0.17
sterile dominance v10.160.71
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.17
threat rate (last 5)0.250.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60