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FC Lorient 3–1 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win48%2.01
Draw28%3.42
Valenciennes win23%4.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟥Baptiste Aloé · Valenciennes
7'⚽Elhadj Dabo · Valenciennes
14'⚽Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
28'⚽Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Lorient
53'🟨Yoane Wissa · FC Lorient
55'⚽Jimmy Cabot · FC Lorient
66'🟨Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Lorient
72'🟨Gaëtan Robail · Valenciennes
78'🟨Eden Massouema · Valenciennes
78'🟨Laurent Dos Santos · Valenciennes
83'🟨Fabien Lemoine · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
7Shots2
3On target1
7Corners1
25Fouls12
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.43
box share (last 5)0.610.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days444.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir
959.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.301.89
elo1518.011433.16
elo momentum (last 5)15.0430.29
eye test v10.63-0.06
eye trend v10.37-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)58.8070.40
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.961.03
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.710.65
league points7.007.00
league rank8.007.00
matches since blank2.0011.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8076.80
possession avg (last 5)59.0046.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.60—
season ppg2.332.33
skill v10.95-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.40
state index0.410.08
sterile dominance v10.530.02
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00