⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Valenciennes 1–1 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Aug 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valenciennes win39%2.51
Chateauroux win31%3.14
Draw31%3.17

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Nama Fofana · Chateauroux
20'⚽ (pen)Medhy Guezoui · Valenciennes
28'🟨Mehdi Merghem · Chateauroux
43'🟨Johann Ramare · Valenciennes
67'🟨Eden Massouema · Valenciennes
68'🟨Valentin Vanbaleghem · Chateauroux
87'⚽Maxime Barthelmé · Chateauroux
90'🟨Grégory Bourillon · Chateauroux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots7
1On target3
2Corners3
48Fouls34
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.590.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.27
box share (last 5)0.560.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days952.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
1774.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.894.24
elo1433.361486.25
elo momentum (last 5)31.62-23.53
eye test v1-0.01-0.16
eye trend v10.47-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)69.3059.10
form points (last 5)10.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.74
keeper form v10.640.85
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4078.00
possession avg (last 5)46.4045.80
rest days7.003.97
season ppg3.000.50
skill v1-0.47-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
state index0.02-0.60
sterile dominance v10.03-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.30
threat rate (last 5)0.200.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20