⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Grenoble 1–0 Niort

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Aug 10, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: William Lavis, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win54%1.80
Draw28%3.50
Niort win19%5.23

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Youssouf M'Changama · Grenoble
31'🟨Valentin Jacob · Niort
45'⚽Jessy Benet · Grenoble
73'🟨Dylan Louiserre · Niort
76'🟨Cyriaque Rivieryan · Niort
85'🟨Julien Da Costa · Niort

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots8
3On target1
5Corners8
14Fouls20
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.300.05
box share (last 5)0.590.56
cards avg (last 5)0.200.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days70.00101.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.600.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.791.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.13
dominance (last 5)0.480.39
elo1391.041486.58
elo momentum (last 5)-3.0312.82
eye test v1-0.13-0.11
eye trend v1β€”0.21
first sub minute (last 10)β€”52.90
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v1β€”0.73
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.0011.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.5078.00
possession avg (last 5)40.0051.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentrationβ€”0.33
season ppg2.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.608.60
skill v1-1.310.24
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.80
sot for avg (last 10)β€”3.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
squad age28.3823.22
state index-0.44-0.15
sterile dominance v1-1.590.30
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.21
threat rate (last 3)0.340.23
threat rate (last 5)0.340.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00