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Ajaccio 2–3 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Aug 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win42%2.32
Draw32%3.06
Sochaux win27%3.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Jeando Fuchs · Sochaux
23'🟨Ermedin Demirovic · Sochaux
29'🟨Jason Pendant · Sochaux
38'🟨Sofiane Daham · Sochaux
44'🟨Johan Cavalli · Ajaccio
44'🟨— · Sochaux
50'⚽Sofiane Daham · Sochaux
55'🟨Alliou Dembele · Ajaccio
62'⚽Jeremy Choplin · Ajaccio
64'⚽Abdoulaye Sane · Sochaux
73'⚽ (og)Pylyp Budkivskyy · Ajaccio
76'🟨Maxence Prévot · Sochaux
90'🟨Cedric Avinel · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots10
5On target4
6Corners2
16Fouls22
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.26
box share (last 5)0.570.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days435.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
435.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.972.63
elo1460.921405.00
elo momentum (last 5)18.04-62.95
eye test v10.48-0.49
eye trend v1-0.07-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)60.3063.10
form points (last 5)8.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.99
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v1—0.69
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4078.20
possession avg (last 5)51.8056.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg1.750.00
skill v10.000.61
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.20
state index-0.19-1.40
sterile dominance v10.030.65
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00