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Chateauroux 1–2 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2018 · Mon, Aug 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Delpech, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win35%2.75
Chateauroux win34%2.82
Draw30%3.18

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Sekou Conde · Chateauroux
51'⚽Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
55'⚽Grégory Bourillon · Chateauroux
63'⚽Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Lorient
89'🟨Razak Boukari · Chateauroux
89'🟨Fabien Lemoine · FC Lorient
90'🟨Joris Sainati · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots9
4On target5
2Corners4
13Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChateaurouxFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.470.61
cards avg (last 5)0.800.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gaston-Petit
coach days1770.00433.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.604.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.209.20
corners volatility (last 10)4.083.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.08
dominance (last 5)0.480.48
elo1489.181507.38
elo momentum (last 5)-5.92-28.64
eye test v1-0.34-0.16
eye trend v10.040.38
first sub minute (last 10)63.0054.70
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.822.46
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.55
keeper form v1—0.63
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win5.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6081.40
possession avg (last 5)45.6061.00
rest days10.009.00
season ppg1.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.4011.00
skill v1-0.191.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.20
squad age26.7227.44
state index-0.27-0.16
sterile dominance v1-0.381.22
threat rate (last 10)0.270.18
threat rate (last 3)0.330.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60