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Beziers 0–1 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Sat, Aug 4, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beziers win37%2.61
Draw34%2.87
Ajaccio win29%3.32

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Johan Cavalli · Ajaccio
45'🟨Alliou Dembele · Ajaccio
46'🟨Joseph Mendes · Ajaccio
81'🟨Jeremy Choplin · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots6
2On target2
4Corners4
15Fouls14
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeziersAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)β€”0.55
accuracy ratio (last 5)β€”0.49
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.10
box share (last 5)β€”0.55
cards avg (last 5)β€”0.20
coach days670.00429.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.05
congestion 21d1.004.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.11
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de la Mediterranee
corner diff avg (last 5)
β€”
1.00
corners against avg (last 5)β€”3.40
corners for avg (last 5)β€”4.40
corners volatility (last 10)β€”2.97
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.13
dominance (last 5)β€”0.52
elo1513.921461.67
elo momentum (last 5)β€”-8.54
eye test v1β€”0.69
eye trend v1β€”0.12
first sub minute (last 10)β€”60.30
form points (last 5)β€”5.00
goal diff avg (last 5)β€”-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)β€”1.20
goals for avg (last 5)β€”1.00
goals volatility (last 10)β€”1.14
h2 goals (last 10)β€”0.70
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.40
keeper form v1β€”0.62
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.009.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)β€”76.60
possession avg (last 5)β€”49.00
rest days8.000.83
season ppg3.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”0.60
shots for avg (last 5)β€”9.40
skill v1β€”-0.06
sot against avg (last 5)β€”4.60
sot for avg (last 10)β€”4.70
sot for avg (last 3)β€”5.67
sot for avg (last 5)β€”5.80
squad age27.1828.06
state index0.15-0.33
sterile dominance v1β€”-0.21
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.26
threat rate (last 3)β€”0.20
threat rate (last 5)β€”0.26
venue ppg (last 5)β€”0.80