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Valenciennes 3–1 AJ Auxerre

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Jul 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Delpech, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win38%2.55
Valenciennes win32%3.04
Draw30%3.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Laurent Dos Santos · Valenciennes
9'⚽Gaëtan Robail · Valenciennes
15'🟨Carlens Arcus · AJ Auxerre
21'⚽Gaëtan Robail · Valenciennes
25'🟨Anthony Goelzer · Valenciennes
45'⚽ (og)Baptiste Aloé · AJ Auxerre
64'🟨Jordan Adeoti · AJ Auxerre
65'🟨Romain Philippoteaux · AJ Auxerre
80'🟨Elhadj Dabo · Valenciennes
88'🟨Ahmed Kantari · Valenciennes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
11Shots8
7On target5
3Corners5
9Fouls28
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesAJ Auxerre
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.27
box share (last 5)0.570.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days938.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
238.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.11
elo1408.251434.45
elo momentum (last 5)21.46-17.16
eye test v10.09-0.79
eye trend v1-0.140.07
first sub minute (last 10)67.4059.60
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.07
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
keeper form v10.60—
matches since blank8.0013.00
matches since clean sheet4.009.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4073.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8046.40
rest days30.0030.00
skill v1-0.27-0.59
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.80
state index-0.21-0.61
sterile dominance v10.11-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.160.28
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.60