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Nancy 0–2 Beziers

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Jul 27, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy win45%2.13
Draw32%3.02
Beziers win22%4.31

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Alexandre Ramalingon · Beziers
27'🟨Anthony Koura · Nancy
60'🟨Maurice Dalé · Nancy
64'🟨Ibrahim Sissoko · Beziers
68'πŸŸ₯Serge N'Guessan Β· Nancy
90'⚽Antoine Rabillard · Beziers

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots5
1On target2
1Corners0
16Fouls11
2Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNancyBeziers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.40β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.51β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.43β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05β€”
box share (last 5)0.60β€”
cards avg (last 5)1.20β€”
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Picot
coach days
117.00
662.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05β€”
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.17β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)3.60β€”
corners against avg (last 5)2.00β€”
corners for avg (last 5)5.60β€”
corners volatility (last 10)2.60β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.19β€”
dominance (last 5)0.58β€”
elo1415.001500.00
elo momentum (last 5)19.82β€”
eye test v1-0.11β€”
eye trend v10.58β€”
first sub minute (last 10)58.50β€”
form points (last 5)9.00β€”
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40β€”
goals against avg (last 5)1.40β€”
goals for avg (last 5)1.80β€”
goals volatility (last 10)1.20β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.60β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20β€”
keeper form v10.56β€”
matches since blank3.00β€”
matches since clean sheet0.00β€”
matches since win0.00β€”
pass acc avg (last 5)70.60β€”
possession avg (last 5)39.80β€”
rest days30.00β€”
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00β€”
shots for avg (last 5)9.40β€”
skill v1-1.31β€”
sot against avg (last 5)2.40β€”
sot for avg (last 10)3.30β€”
sot for avg (last 3)4.67β€”
sot for avg (last 5)4.20β€”
squad age27.24β€”
state index0.240.00
sterile dominance v1-1.03β€”
threat rate (last 10)0.22β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.29β€”
threat rate (last 5)0.27β€”
venue ppg (last 5)2.40β€”