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Grenoble 1–0 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Jul 27, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Bastein Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win43%2.24
Draw30%3.21
Sochaux win27%3.64

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Josema · Sochaux
30'🟨Julien Deletraz · Grenoble
50'🟨Elisha Owusu · Sochaux
75'⚽ (pen)Malek Chergui · Grenoble

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots6
3On target2
5Corners8
14Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)β€”0.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)β€”0.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.300.05
box share (last 5)β€”0.44
cards avg (last 5)0.000.60
coach days56.00421.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.09
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
corner diff avg (last 5)
-4.00
-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.022.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.20
dominance (last 5)0.450.45
elo1375.111432.66
elo momentum (last 5)-17.02-53.49
eye test v1β€”-0.39
eye trend v1β€”-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)β€”62.60
form points (last 5)3.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v1β€”0.59
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet9.006.00
matches since win9.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)β€”75.40
possession avg (last 5)β€”49.60
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.80
skill v1β€”-0.15
sot against avg (last 5)β€”6.60
sot for avg (last 10)β€”3.60
sot for avg (last 3)β€”3.00
sot for avg (last 5)β€”3.40
squad ageβ€”23.27
state index-0.94-1.04
sterile dominance v1β€”-0.29
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.26
threat rate (last 3)β€”0.22
threat rate (last 5)β€”0.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00