← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Heidenheim win | 26% | 3.77 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Patrick Mainka · Heidenheim |
| 32' | ⚽ | Robert Andrich · Heidenheim |
| 59' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
| 76' | ⚽ | Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt |
| 82' | ⚽ | Arne Feick · Heidenheim |
| 88' | ⚽ | Robert Leipertz · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟥 | Robert Glatzel · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cenk Şahin · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 4278.00 | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1531.91 | 1503.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.22 | 71.96 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 58.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 34.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -2.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 28.44 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -2.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |