← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 68% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.41 |
| Regensburg win | 14% | 6.88 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (og) | Rafael Czichos · Regensburg |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟥 | Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg |
| 48' | 🟨 | Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jorge Meré · 1. FC Köln |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 68' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 71' | 🟨 | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 76' | ⚽ | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dominick Drexler · 1. FC Köln |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonas Föhrenbach · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 17 | Shots | 27 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 13.00 | 680.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.18 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1615.76 | 1460.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.00 | -8.99 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 69.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| league points | 63.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.68 | 26.99 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -2.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |