← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Bacher, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 63% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.18 |
| Dresden win | 18% | 5.34 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jonas Meffert · Holstein Kiel |
| 77' | ⚽ | Hauke Wahl · Holstein Kiel |
| 79' | 🟨 | Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 315.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1515.17 | 1469.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -74.17 | 12.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 49.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 25.49 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |