← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florian Heft, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 39% | 2.46 |
| Greuther Furth win | 32% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Julian Green · Greuther Furth |
| 19' | 🟨 | Tom Baumgart · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jan Hochscheidt · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 40' | 🟨 | Yosuke Ideguchi · Greuther Furth |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mario Kvesić · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 710.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1447.88 | 1431.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.00 | -20.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 43.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 25.25 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |