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FC St. Pauli 1910 0–0 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win38%2.54
Bochum win36%2.69
Draw26%3.76

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

67'🟨Miloš Pantović · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots10
3On target4
8Corners4
16Fouls8
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Bochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.570.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.520.63
cards avg (last 5)2.601.80
coach days41.00465.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.12
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.232.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.11
dominance (last 5)0.480.48
elo1464.381478.18
elo momentum (last 5)-18.512.68
eye test v10.690.36
eye trend v10.360.02
first sub minute (last 10)54.1061.90
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.490.70
league points52.0048.00
league rank7.009.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2075.60
possession avg (last 5)50.8053.60
rest days9.008.00
scorer concentration0.150.34
season ppg1.531.41
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.4014.80
skill v10.190.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.20
squad age26.0426.28
state index-0.53-0.21
sterile dominance v10.04-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40