← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 40% | 2.44 |
| Hamburger SV win | 34% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.71 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Benteler-Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 771.00 | 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1547.49 | 1543.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.01 | -56.62 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.58 |
| league points | 57.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.66 | 23.22 |
| state index | 0.79 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |