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Greuther Furth 0–4 1. FC Köln

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Mon, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win59%1.63
Draw25%3.88
Greuther Furth win16%6.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln
20'⚽ (og)Daniel Steininger · 1. FC Köln
32'🟨Daniel Steininger · Greuther Furth
41'⚽Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln
65'⚽Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
3Shots20
0On target9
1Corners11
10Fouls5
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther Furth1. FC Köln
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.450.67
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
coach days94.007.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.601.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.473.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.16
dominance (last 5)0.490.56
elo1445.501602.09
elo momentum (last 5)-8.32-52.93
eye test v10.260.73
eye trend v10.11-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)60.9058.10
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.55
keeper form v10.680.62
league points44.0060.00
league rank12.001.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.005.00
matches since win3.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4082.80
possession avg (last 5)55.8056.60
rest days9.0010.00
scorer concentration0.290.34
season ppg1.331.82
shot diff avg (last 5)0.004.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.4018.40
skill v10.341.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.306.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.60
squad age25.8526.89
state index-0.31-0.39
sterile dominance v10.170.07
threat rate (last 10)0.250.31
threat rate (last 3)0.310.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60