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Darmstadt 2–1 1. FC Union Berlin

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Union Berlin win49%1.97
Draw27%3.59
Darmstadt win24%4.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

49'⚽Yannick Stark · Darmstadt
60'🟨Marvin Mehlem · Darmstadt
69'🟨Robert Žulj · 1. FC Union Berlin
77'⚽Mathias Wittek · Darmstadt
87'⚽Sebastian Andersson · 1. FC Union Berlin

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots21
3On target8
1Corners6
14Fouls14
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadt1. FC Union Berlin
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
box share (last 5)0.560.63
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadion am Böllenfalltor
2.20
coach days93.00308.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.402.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.490.60
elo1490.041579.91
elo momentum (last 5)13.82-15.71
eye test v1-0.310.86
eye trend v1-0.080.03
first sub minute (last 10)61.2061.10
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.50
keeper form v10.770.79
league points43.0057.00
league rank13.003.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2071.60
possession avg (last 5)47.6050.60
rest days9.007.00
scorer concentration0.300.20
season ppg1.301.73
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.005.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.4018.00
skill v1-0.65-0.51
sot against avg (last 5)5.206.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.806.20
squad age28.3927.96
state index0.150.26
sterile dominance v1-0.60-1.21
threat rate (last 10)0.260.36
threat rate (last 3)0.230.35
threat rate (last 5)0.280.38
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60