← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Muller Pascal, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 49% | 1.97 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 26% | 3.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.84 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 50' | 🟥 | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 52' | ⚽ | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 56' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 79' | 🟨 | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sebastian Nachreiner · Regensburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 673.00 | 703.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1480.08 | 1428.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.63 | -17.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.70 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 49.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.07 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.48 | 27.13 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.25 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |