← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 35% | 2.74 |
| Hamburger SV win | 35% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.23 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 301.00 | 423.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1566.86 | 1581.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.45 | -35.79 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| league points | 54.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 23.46 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |