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FC St. Pauli 1910 4–3 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Alt, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg win39%2.47
FC St. Pauli 1910 win34%2.85
Draw27%3.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Benedikt Saller · Regensburg
27'⚽Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg
35'⚽Dimitrios Diamantakos · FC St. Pauli 1910
40'⚽Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg
42'🟨Johannes Flum · FC St. Pauli 1910
42'🟨Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg
52'⚽Johannes Flum · FC St. Pauli 1910
71'🟨Sebastian Nachreiner · Regensburg
72'⚽Marvin Knoll · FC St. Pauli 1910
81'🟨Ryo Miyaichi · FC St. Pauli 1910
84'🟨Jann George · Regensburg
86'⚽Ryo Miyaichi · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'⚽Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
19Shots8
10On target3
7Corners3
13Fouls19
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Regensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.590.58
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
2.80
coach days26.00665.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.07
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-4.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.809.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.232.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.06
dominance (last 5)0.460.48
elo1464.021489.08
elo momentum (last 5)-26.551.94
eye test v10.080.73
eye trend v10.260.13
first sub minute (last 10)57.6068.80
form points (last 5)3.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.530.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.550.70
league points49.0049.00
league rank8.007.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2062.60
possession avg (last 5)50.2042.20
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.170.30
season ppg1.531.53
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.4018.00
skill v10.36-2.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.006.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.605.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.80
squad age27.2527.51
state index-0.78-0.02
sterile dominance v10.11-2.57
threat rate (last 10)0.240.41
threat rate (last 3)0.240.51
threat rate (last 5)0.250.44
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20