← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Alt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 39% | 2.47 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 34% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 26.00 | 665.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1464.02 | 1489.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.55 | 1.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 68.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| league points | 49.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | -2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 27.51 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -2.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |