← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 57% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.05 |
| Dresden win | 19% | 5.12 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
| 76' | 🟨 | Paulo Otávio · Ingolstadt |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 25.00 | 84.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1454.56 | 1469.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.56 | 32.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.75 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 30.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.48 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.89 | 25.06 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.65 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |