← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 48% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 25% | 3.84 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 4250.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1527.69 | 1476.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.31 | -35.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 49.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.23 | 27.05 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |