← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 68% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.66 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 11% | 8.45 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Steve Breitkreuz · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 29' | 🟨 | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 43' | ⚽ | Philipp Zulechner · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 53' | ⚽ | Manuel Wintzheimer · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| coach days | 415.00 | 688.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1587.34 | 1412.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.65 | -32.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 55.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.23 | 26.28 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |