← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Mon, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.96 |
| Hamburger SV win | 19% | 5.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Dominick Drexler · 1. FC Köln |
| 38' | 🟨 | Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln |
| 47' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 49' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rick Van Drongelen · Hamburger SV |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jorge Meré · 1. FC Köln |
| 85' | ⚽ | Manuel Wintzheimer · Hamburger SV |
| 87' | 🟨 | Manuel Wintzheimer · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 288.00 | 410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1644.70 | 1584.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.81 | -10.50 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| league points | 59.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.86 | 24.43 |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |