← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 40% | 2.40 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
| 13' | ⚽ | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 51' | 🟨 | Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt |
| 53' | ⚽ | Atakan Karazor · Holstein Kiel |
| 84' | 🟨 | Hauke Wahl · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 13.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1431.66 | 1589.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.04 | -30.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.40 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 26.17 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |