← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Arne Aarnink, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 38% | 2.53 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 33% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Robert Andrich · Heidenheim |
| 74' | 🟨 | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 79' | 🟨 | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 81' | 🟥 | Filip Kusić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 84' | 🟨 | Arne Feick · Heidenheim |
| 87' | 🟨 | Philipp Zulechner · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 87' | 🟨 | Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 680.00 | 4241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1421.28 | 1518.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.84 | -26.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| league points | 36.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 26.43 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |