← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 60% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 |
| Regensburg win | 17% | 5.57 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Sebastian Andersson · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 16' | 🟨 | Rafał Gikiewicz · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 29' | 🟨 | Marcel Correia · Regensburg |
| 30' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 58' | ⚽ | Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Sebastian Polter · 1. FC Union Berlin |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 16 |
| 11 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 285.00 | 650.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1572.63 | 1477.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.43 | -17.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 52.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.89 | 27.54 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | -2.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |