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Hamburger SV 1–2 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Mon, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win58%1.66
Draw28%3.50
Magdeburg win14%6.68

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Marius Bülter · Magdeburg
31'⚽Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV
35'🟨Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV
48'🟨Kyriakos Papadopoulos · Hamburger SV
50'🟨Rico Preißinger · Magdeburg
60'⚽Marius Bülter · Magdeburg
80'🟨Jan Kirchhoff · Magdeburg
90'🟨Khaled Narey · Hamburger SV
90'🟨Philip Türpitz · Magdeburg
90'⚽Philip Türpitz · Magdeburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots12
5On target5
3Corners6
14Fouls13
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHamburger SVMagdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.650.54
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVolksparkstadion
coach days403.001742.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.04
corner diff avg (last 5)0.002.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.513.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.08
dominance (last 5)0.470.53
elo1599.771431.12
elo momentum (last 5)-6.91-29.73
eye test v10.13-0.99
eye trend v10.21-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)55.9060.90
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.660.77
league points54.0025.00
league rank2.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4067.20
possession avg (last 5)52.6047.40
rest days8.969.96
scorer concentration0.310.32
season ppg1.930.86
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.402.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4011.80
skill v10.02-1.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.60
squad age23.6226.64
state index0.41-0.57
sterile dominance v10.07-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40