← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.99 |
| Heidenheim win | 19% | 5.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Dominick Drexler · 1. FC Köln |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln |
| 44' | 🟨 | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 64' | 🟨 | Robert Andrich · Heidenheim |
| 64' | 🟨 | Rafael Czichos · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 4236.00 | 280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1531.59 | 1642.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.22 | 42.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| league points | 46.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 27.30 |
| state index | -0.10 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |