← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 51% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 24% | 4.07 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Jeremy Dudziak · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 28' | 🟨 | Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel |
| 41' | 🟥 | Stefan Thesker · Holstein Kiel |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Meier · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 49' | 🟨 | Johannes Flum · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 279.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1583.66 | 1482.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.01 | -35.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| league points | 45.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.24 | 26.40 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |