← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Mon, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 39% | 2.49 |
| Dresden win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.38 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
| 27' | ⚽ | Philipp Zulechner · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 33' | 🟨 | Robert Herrmann · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 43' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 45' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Dresden |
| 50' | ⚽ | Lucas Röser · Dresden |
| 64' | 🟨 | Dominik Wydra · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 64' | 🟨 | Haris Duljević · Dresden |
| 81' | ⚽ | Justin Löwe · Dresden |
| 90' | ⚽ | Erich Berko · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 669.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1445.80 | 1437.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.84 | -21.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 36.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 16.96 | 15.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 25.39 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |