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Ingolstadt 1–2 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win50%1.94
Draw29%3.32
SV Sandhausen win21%4.58

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Bjørn Paulsen · Ingolstadt
55'⚽Kevin Behrens · SV Sandhausen
90'⚽Andrew Wooten · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots9
3On target4
4Corners5
5Fouls16
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.140.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.490.61
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
coach days120.00181.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.13
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Sportpark
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.991.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.07
dominance (last 5)0.560.41
elo1407.001431.66
elo momentum (last 5)-18.106.27
eye test v1-0.42-0.93
eye trend v1-0.280.23
first sub minute (last 10)66.5059.00
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.600.73
league points20.0024.00
league rank19.0016.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0066.60
possession avg (last 5)53.6046.80
rest days13.9614.96
scorer concentration0.290.37
season ppg0.740.89
shot diff avg (last 5)2.60-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.2010.00
skill v1-0.26-1.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.80
squad age28.5127.58
state index-0.67-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.13-0.59
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80