← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Bacher, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 53% | 1.84 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 24% | 4.07 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 272.00 | 728.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1595.62 | 1498.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.55 | 0.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 2.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 51.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.05 | 25.22 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |