← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 40% | 2.45 |
| Heidenheim win | 31% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Dennis Erdmann · Magdeburg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Norman Theuerkauf · Heidenheim |
| 72' | 🟨 | Norman Theuerkauf · Heidenheim |
| 72' | 🟥 | Norman Theuerkauf · Heidenheim |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marcel Costly · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobias Reithmeir · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Magdeburg | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | MDCC-Arena |
| coach days | 1732.00 | 4227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1429.89 | 1532.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.28 | -13.99 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 26.88 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |