← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Mon, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 55% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
| Greuther Furth win | 20% | 4.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Markus Palionis · Regensburg |
| 19' | 🟨 | Marco Caligiuri · Greuther Furth |
| 29' | 🟨 | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jonas Föhrenbach · Regensburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Kenny Prince Redondo · Greuther Furth |
| 66' | 🟨 | Markus Palionis · Regensburg |
| 66' | 🟥 | Markus Palionis · Regensburg |
| 69' | 🟨 | Richard Magyar · Greuther Furth |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marco Caligiuri · Greuther Furth |
| 87' | 🟨 | Fabian Reese · Greuther Furth |
| 90' | ⚽ | David Raum · Greuther Furth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 625.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1487.14 | 1434.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.80 | 18.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| league points | 41.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 26.08 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.65 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |