← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 56% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.20 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 21% | 4.53 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 257.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1588.35 | 1455.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.63 | 17.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| league points | 42.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 26.77 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |