← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lasse Koslowski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 45% | 2.16 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 29% | 3.31 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 646.00 | 707.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1445.26 | 1498.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.78 | 28.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 33.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.24 | 25.77 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |