← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 52% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Ingolstadt win | 20% | 4.88 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Jonatan Kotzke · Ingolstadt |
| 38' | 🟨 | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Sebastian Andersson · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 48' | 🟨 | Robin Krausse · Ingolstadt |
| 49' | 🟨 | Manuel Schmiedebach · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 62' | 🟨 | Paulo Otávio · Ingolstadt |
| 65' | 🟨 | Akaki Gogia · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 65' | 🟥 | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
| 70' | 🟨 | Grischa Prömel · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 75' | 🟨 | Robin Krausse · Ingolstadt |
| 75' | 🟥 | Robin Krausse · Ingolstadt |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 79' | ⚽ | Akaki Gogia · 1. FC Union Berlin |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 26 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 250.00 | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1600.22 | 1422.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.54 | 8.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 48.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 28.57 |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |