← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Florian Heft, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 53% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.72 |
| Ingolstadt win | 21% | 4.54 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Jorge Meré · 1. FC Köln |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jonatan Kotzke · Ingolstadt |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mërgim Mavraj · Ingolstadt |
| 42' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 59' | ⚽ | Dominick Drexler · 1. FC Köln |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Louis Schaub · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bjørn Paulsen · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 26 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 92.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1429.23 | 1612.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.24 | -1.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.20 | 27.36 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |